It’s been a damaging week for Scotland’s coefficient and it could be about to get a whole lot worse
It’s been a tough week for Scottish football as our plunging coefficient took a beating after some ropey European results.
Celtic’s reluctance to sign players could prove costly after Brendan Rodgers’ side could only muster a goalless stalemate at home to Kairat Almaty.
Now, their £40million Champions League dreams hang in the balance ahead of an exhausting 10-hour flight to Kazakhstan – a country where no Scottish team has ever emerged victorious.
Rangers will require a miracle in Belgium if they are to somehow return to Europe’s top competition after being spanked 3-1 by Club Brugge at Ibrox, all-but consigning them to Thursday night football.
Aberdeen at least mounted a two-goal comeback at home to ten-man FCSB but Jimmy Thelin’s men will have to pull it out of the bag in Romania if they are to book their place in the Europa League group stages.
As for Hibs, they face an uphill battle cementing Conference League qualification, with Legia Warsaw in Pole position to progress after a 2-1 first leg victory at Easter Road.
Four games and zero wins was not what we needed as we look to climb up the coefficient rankings, where we currently lie a lowly 17th.
The top ten is where we need to be and Czechia are the country to catch, with Greece, Norway, Poland, Denmark, Austria and Switzerland sandwiched in between.
But the worrying reality is SPFL teams need to look over their shoulders, with Sweden closing the gap – putting Scottish football at risk of falling down a place.
In fact, the Swedes could soon overtake us if results go their way. Malmo are on course for the Europa League as they take a 3-0 first leg advantage to SK Sigma Olomouc, while Hacken hammered Celtic’s old Euro foes CFR Cluj 7-2 to plant one foot in the Conference League.
And if Hibs tumble out of Europe altogether, it paints an even grimmer picture as we’d have only three teams left (Celtic, Rangers and Aberdeen) to try and save the day.
By comparison, 16th-placed Switzerland have Wolfsberger, Rapid Vienna, Servette and Lausanne-Sport in as it stands. So the gap could become even wider.
There are serious implications, too. To put it bluntly, we’re staring at the European abyss. Unless our remaining teams can somehow drag us up to 14th in UEFA’s standings, then clubs face their bleakest outlook in more than a decade.
In just two years’ time, the number of representatives could drop from five to four. And the damage wouldn’t stop there.
Future Premiership winners would be forced through three Champions League qualifiers instead of one. Runners-up would be punted into the Conference League qualifiers – three rounds of them – instead of landing a crack at the Champions League or even Europa League.
The third-placed team would face the exact same slog, while even the Scottish Cup winners would be handed four Europa League qualifiers instead of one.
Of course, that’s the worst-case, but very realistic, scenario.
What we do know for certain is that as a result of falling outside the top 12, next season’s Scottish Cup winners must enter the Europa League in the third qualifying round rather than the play-offs – so there’s no longer a guaranteed spot in the group stage.
And to make matters worse, the Premiership’s third-placed side will now drop into the Conference League second qualifying round, rather than starting at the same stage in the Europa League.
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