The UK is in the grip of a severe drought. England and Wales received only 9-10% of their normal rainfall in July, and for England it was the driest July since records began in 1836. A fifth heatwave has just been forecast. This is the shape of things to come and is what climate scientists have long predicted.
The drought’s length and severity are affecting UK agriculture and food production. This follows other shocks to the system, such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, that have already fuelled food price inflation. Impacts are now front page news. Crucially, concern is shifting from cost alone to the security of food supply. Inflation hits the poorest people hardest but supply disruption can affect everyone.
Drought also hits wildlife. River and lake ecosystems are stressed by heat and low levels of water, while wildfires damage habitats. Pollinating insects, fish and reptiles, bird and mammals all suffer.
Farm finances are now under the spotlight. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board estimates below ten-year average yields for wheat, spring barley and oats, with wheat – a crucial crop for farmers – notably low. A thinktank called the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit estimates that drought-related yield losses could result in £390 million of lost revenue to UK arable farmers. And grass growth has collapsed, meaning livestock farmers will have to buy in more feed. If farmers cannot turn a profit, many will scale back their production or stop altogether.
Farming unions call for a loosening of restrictions on establishing reservoirs on farms and for tax breaks to make it more financially attractive to invest to support adaptation to climate change. The UK government’s Climate Change Committee warns that the UK is not sufficiently prepared to deal with the impacts of climate change on agriculture, among other sectors. We need to better plan for coping with 2°C of warming by 2050.
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Some drought measures (such as hosepipe bans) can be relatively quickly put in place, but the food security problem will only deepen. Our entire food system needs a redesign to cope with these increasing threats to resilience over the long term.
Last year, I spent many months with colleagues developing a Roadmap for Resilience for the UK food system. Our starting point was that significant change is inevitable. Adapting to climate change and bolstering resilience against international threats and disruption means that struggling on with business-as-usual is no longer a viable option. On top of that, our diets are fuelling poor public health, straining NHS resources and dragging down UK productivity through diet-related worklessness (unemployment or sick leave). Meanwhile, our systems of production have been eroding biodiversity and polluting rivers and waterways.
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Our roadmap highlights three key transformations: to make food production more resilient by changing what we grow and production systems, to be smarter in our use of land to produce food alongside adapting to climate change and reducing net emissions, and to make healthier diets more accessible and affordable. The UK has enough land and agricultural resources to avoid greater import dependence and boost national resilience and self-sufficiency. Crucially, this magnitude of change would require a long-term plan over a 25-year period, and a commitment to addressing these three transformational changes together.
From last year’s work, we established Root and Reason – The Food Resilience Collective, a not-for-profit community interest company, to promote the strengthening of resilience across the food system. The UK does not lack expertise, but this country lacks clear plans for coping with disruption. There must also be clear accountability for outcomes and the genuine involvement of the people most affected. Science and innovation must be harnessed, but the various groups across the food system – from farmers, food companies, agri-tech developers, consumers and environmental organisations along with government departments and public agencies – all need a stronger sense of strategy and direction.
We must move beyond the tinkering that characterises government announcements and the food and farming trade press. We need to raise our sights and ask how our food system can be managed to become more resilient, stronger and fairer as we move through the 2030s and 2040s. The question is will we shape change by design or be buffeted from crisis to crisis.