Scottish politics has a dual nature. It is significantly distinct from politics in the rest of the United Kingdom, with its own dynamics, parties and leaders. But it can still be affected by events down south. And for the Scottish sections of the UK parties – the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Labour and Reform UK – negative perceptions of their UK leaderships can have consequences for their Scottish wings.
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How much longer can Keir Starmer survive?
This is the situation Anas Sarwar, leader of the Scottish Labour party, finds himself in. In recent weeks the UK government has been engulfed in a scandal surrounding former Labour peer, MP, minister and (most recently) ambassador Peter Mandelson and his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.
This has led to his resignation from the House of Lords and the Labour party, the launch of a police investigation and an intense backlash that has put Prime Minister Keir Starmer under pressure. Sarwar has entered the foray in dramatic fashion, summoning the media to a press conference in Glasgow where he called on Starmer to resign.
Why did Sarwar publicly turn on Starmer?
Sarwar’s primary motivation is that his party is struggling badly ahead of May’s crucial Scottish parliamentary elections. The most recent polling shows the governing Scottish National Party (SNP) in a reduced first place, and Labour fighting the radical right Reform UK party for second.
While historically Scotland’s dominant party, Labour lost power to the SNP in 2007 and was then reduced to third place in 2016. But it made a striking comeback in 2024 when Sarwar’s party won the UK general election in Scotland, capitalising on voters’ perception of declining public services under the SNP.
However, following the installation of a Labour government at the UK level, the party’s ratings rapidly declined. Sarwar is concerned that the fallout from the Mandleson scandal will lead to even further losses of support in the polls.
Alamy/SST
While Starmer’s cabinet has rushed to defend him, Sarwar is, so far, the most high-profile Labour figure to call for Starmer’s resignation. What is especially interesting is that Sarwar has specifically framed his call in Scottish terms, speaking of his loyalty to Scotland and alleging that Starmer’s actions have been detrimental to his party’s prospects in May. He stated that Starmer must go if Scotland is going to avoid another decade of SNP rule.
Was he right to do it?
Sarwar is right that UK Labour’s unpopularity since it took office has damaged the standing of its devolved wings. He also presumably feels very angry his chances of taking power have been ended by this. But the choice to blame Scottish Labour’s failings on Starmer obscures Sarwar’s own responsibility for Labour’s poor standing.
While Starmer is undoubtedly highly unpopular in Scotland, Sarwar has spent the time since the general election steadfastly failing to differentiate himself from the prime minister – despite suggestions during in the 2024 campaign Scottish Labour MPs would serve as an autonomous group at Westminster and pursue an independent line.
This failure is important as it means Sarwar’s Scottish party has been severely discredited by UK Labour’s failings and can no longer serve as the receptacle of anti-SNP protest voting as it did in the general election. Continuing criticism of the SNP’s record now rings much hollower when voters can look at a very similar party in Westminster they don’t perceive as doing any better or even as worse.
What’s behind this row?
Ultimately, this is linked to broader underlying issues in Scottish Labour around the party’s continuing inability to come to terms with its loss of status as the country’s dominant political force and adapt to the politics of the devolution era. The party has consistently failed to take into account how Holyrood-centric Scottish politics has become or the need for policy and messaging differentiation between Scotland and the UK. This is something that Welsh Labour realised in the 2000s.
The return of a new majority of Labour MPs in Scotland should have been viewed as the next step towards the campaign to win the 2026 elections in Scotland. Instead it seems to have renewed the party’s Westminster-centrism.
Scottish MPs in Westminster have toed the party line, including on policies which are highly unpopular north of the border. This has been exacerbated by frequent campaign misfires, such as the printing and distribution of leaflets with fake quotes endorsing Sarwar and a bizarre series of adverts centred on Sarwar’s life.
Such a personality-centred campaign makes little sense when the party is no longer running neck and neck with the SNP but struggling for second place. Arguably, setting out a strong vision of what Scottish Labour wants Scotland to look like – other than merely a place without the SNP in charge – would leave the party in a much stronger place.
Sarwar’s move will likely not harm his party’s prospects in May, but the move to a more assertive Scottish leadership is very late in the game and much more will be needed for a true turnaround in Scottish Labour’s fortunes.
