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    Buy British buses to save 400 Scottish jobs at Alexander Dennis, says MP

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        Scots selling counterfeit goods less likely to face prosecution as conviction rate plummets

        Scots selling counterfeit goods less likely to face prosecution as conviction rate plummets

        Librarian cuts at Glasgow schools will ‘rob kids of opportunities’ as SNP Government urged to intervene

        Librarian cuts at Glasgow schools will ‘rob kids of opportunities’ as SNP Government urged to intervene

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        Nicola Sturgeon agrees to TV special as ex-SNP leader to be grilled on ‘striking revelations’ in new book

        Donald Trump diary reveals exact time he will arrive in Scotland

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        Scots ‘forced to wait years’ for hernia operations as NHS struggles to meet demand

        Scots ‘forced to wait years’ for hernia operations as NHS struggles to meet demand

        System must work to protect public as report finds chances missed with Southport killer

        System must work to protect public as report finds chances missed with Southport killer

        NHS in Scotland ‘stuck in analogue age’ as health boards shell out millions on pagers

        NHS in Scotland ‘stuck in analogue age’ as health boards shell out millions on pagers

        Scottish Labour MP to vote against welfare reforms despite Keir Starmer climbdown

        Scottish Labour MP to vote against welfare reforms despite Keir Starmer climbdown

        Buy British buses to save 400 Scottish jobs at Alexander Dennis, says MP

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        Scots fear crime is rising in their local area as SNP Government accused of ‘hollowing out’ police

        Scots fear crime is rising in their local area as SNP Government accused of ‘hollowing out’ police

        Senior member of Anas Sarwar’s shadow cabinet ‘opposed’ to Labour welfare cuts bill

        Senior member of Anas Sarwar’s shadow cabinet ‘opposed’ to Labour welfare cuts bill

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          What is a virtual office and why you need one in Central London – Your Company Formations Ltd

          Inflation rises again to new 40-year high

          Inflation rises again to new 40-year high

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          Bank of England hikes interest rates to 1.25%

          Hiring activity in Scotland slows amid steep decline in staff availability

          Hiring activity in Scotland slows amid steep decline in staff availability

          Scottish retail footfall growth ‘worst in UK compared to pre-pandemic’

          Scottish retail footfall growth ‘worst in UK compared to pre-pandemic’

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          Lyall Cameron slammed for ‘disrespect’ as Rangers new boy comes under fire for Dundee ‘jibes’

          Lyall Cameron slammed for ‘disrespect’ as Rangers new boy comes under fire for Dundee ‘jibes’

          Celtic risk blowing £1.6m transfer windfall as defensive duo head out on loan – Parkhead news bulletin

          Celtic risk blowing £1.6m transfer windfall as defensive duo head out on loan – Parkhead news bulletin

          Prince William’s firm five-word statement to Chloe Kelly about Euros goal uncovered by lip reader

          Prince William’s firm five-word statement to Chloe Kelly about Euros goal uncovered by lip reader

          Kieran Tierney genius exposes ‘sloppy’ Ajax as Celtic earn rival acclaim despite Como Cup hammering

          Kieran Tierney genius exposes ‘sloppy’ Ajax as Celtic earn rival acclaim despite Como Cup hammering

          Andrej Bacanin makes Celtic transfer intentions clear amid Rangers claim as direct link with Lennon Miller emerges

          Andrej Bacanin makes Celtic transfer intentions clear amid Rangers claim as direct link with Lennon Miller emerges

          Rangers strongest XI for Panathinaikos as Thelo Aasgaard injury blow opens door for Euro history-maker

          Rangers strongest XI for Panathinaikos as Thelo Aasgaard injury blow opens door for Euro history-maker

          Celtic could ‘renew interest’ in Evan Ferguson as transfer hijack follows Yamada hint and Ambrosino U turn

          Celtic could ‘renew interest’ in Evan Ferguson as transfer hijack follows Yamada hint and Ambrosino U turn

          Exact cost of Rangers injury crisis revealed as payments to crocked stars double that of Celtic

          Exact cost of Rangers injury crisis revealed as payments to crocked stars double that of Celtic

          Conor Coady in Diogo Jota tribute as old Wolves pal celebrates an ‘incredible person’

          Conor Coady in Diogo Jota tribute as old Wolves pal celebrates an ‘incredible person’

          Brendan Rodgers described me as huge Celtic coup after 24 clubs wanted me – now I have retired aged just 28

          Brendan Rodgers described me as huge Celtic coup after 24 clubs wanted me – now I have retired aged just 28

          Ange Postecoglou to LAFC has direct Celtic link as MLS heavy hitters plot ambitious manager move

          Ange Postecoglou to LAFC has direct Celtic link as MLS heavy hitters plot ambitious manager move

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          The Rangers transfers Russell Martin needs revealed as AEK set Dessers deadline and Shankland a no-brainer

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            Tech fans rush to buy £30 Acer Chromebook tablet that is ‘perfect for work and play’

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            Apple fans rush to buy MacBook for only £99 after 54% price slash

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            Panasonic dishes out £100 takeaway vouchers and 15% off ‘first class’ OLED TVs

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            Donald Trump medical condition diagnosed as US President suffers swollen legs

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            People on highest PIP could see payments rise to nearly £800 each month from next April

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          ‘The data on extreme human ageing is rotten from the inside out’ – Ig Nobel winner Saul Justin Newman

          by BP Author
          September 14, 2024
          in World
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          From the swimming habits of dead trout to the revelation that some mammals can breathe through their backsides, a group of leading leftfield scientists have been taking their bows at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for the 34th annual Ig Nobel Prize ceremony. Not to be confused with the actual Nobel prizes, the Ig Nobels recognise scientific discoveries that “make people laugh, then think”.

          We caught up with one of this year’s winners, Saul Justin Newman, a senior research fellow at the University College London Centre for Longitudinal Studies. His research finds that most of the claims about people living over 105 are wrong.

          How did you find out about your award?

          I picked up the phone after slogging through traffic and rain to a bloke from Cambridge in the UK. He told me about this prize and the first thing I thought of was the lady who collected snot off of whales and the levitating frog. I said, “absolutely I want to be in this club”.

          What was the ceremony like?

          The ceremony was wonderful. It’s a bit of fun in a big fancy hall. It’s like you take the most serious ceremony possible and make fun of every aspect of it.

          But your work is actually incredibly serious?

          I started getting interested in this topic when I debunked a couple of papers in Nature and Science about extreme ageing in the 2010s. In general, the claims about how long people are living mostly don’t stack up. I’ve tracked down 80% of the people aged over 110 in the world (the other 20% are from countries you can’t meaningfully analyse). Of those, almost none have a birth certificate. In the US there are over 500 of these people; seven have a birth certificate. Even worse, only about 10% have a death certificate.

          The epitome of this is blue zones, which are regions where people supposedly reach age 100 at a remarkable rate. For almost 20 years, they have been marketed to the public. They’re the subject of tons of scientific work, a popular Netflix documentary, tons of cookbooks about things like the Mediterranean diet, and so on.

          Okinawa in Japan is one of these zones. There was a Japanese government review in 2010, which found that 82% of the people aged over 100 in Japan turned out to be dead. The secret to living to 110 was, don’t register your death.

          The Japanese government has run one of the largest nutritional surveys in the world, dating back to 1975. From then until now, Okinawa has had the worst health in Japan. They’ve eaten the least vegetables; they’ve been extremely heavy drinkers.

          What about other places?

          The same goes for all the other blue zones. Eurostat keeps track of life expectancy in Sardinia, the Italian blue zone, and Ikaria in Greece. When the agency first started keeping records in 1990, Sardinia had the 51st highest old-age life expectancy in Europe out of 128 regions, and Ikaria was 109th. It’s amazing the cognitive dissonance going on. With the Greeks, by my estimates at least 72% of centenarians were dead, missing or essentially pension-fraud cases.

          Old men sitting outside in Sardinia

          Sardinia is another place whose longevity data is highly questionable.
          David Burton/Alamy

          What do you think explains most of the faulty data?

          It varies. In Okinawa, the best predictor of where the centenarians are is where the halls of records were bombed by the Americans during the war. That’s for two reasons. If the person dies, they stay on the books of some other national registry, which hasn’t confirmed their death. Or if they live, they go to an occupying government that doesn’t speak their language, works on a different calendar and screws up their age.

          According to the Greek minister that hands out the pensions, over 9,000 people over the age of 100 are dead and collecting a pension at the same time. In Italy, some 30,000 “living” pension recipients were found to be dead in 1997.

          Regions where people most often reach 100-110 years old are the ones where there’s the most pressure to commit pension fraud, and they also have the worst records. For example, the best place to reach 105 in England is Tower Hamlets. It has more 105-year-olds than all of the rich places in England put together. It’s closely followed by downtown Manchester, Liverpool and Hull. Yet these places have the lowest frequency of 90-year-olds and are rated by the UK as the worst places to be an old person.

          The oldest man in the world, John Tinniswood, supposedly aged 112, is from a very rough part of Liverpool. The easiest explanation is that someone has written down his age wrong at some point.

          But most people don’t lose count of their age…

          You would be amazed. Looking at the UK Biobank data, even people in mid-life routinely don’t remember how old they are, or how old they were when they had their children. There are similar stats from the US.

          What does this all mean for human longevity?

          The question is so obscured by fraud and error and wishful thinking that we just do not know. The clear way out of this is to involve physicists to develop a measure of human age that doesn’t depend on documents. We can then use that to build metrics that help us measure human ages.

          Young hands holding old hands

          Life expectancy goes to the heart of the global economy.
          Simon Pilolla 2

          Longevity data are used for projections of future lifespans, and those are used to set everyone’s pension rate. You’re talking about trillions of dollars of pension money. If the data is junk then so are those projections. It also means we’re allocating the wrong amounts of money to plan hospitals to take care of old people in the future. Your insurance premiums are based on this stuff.

          What’s your best guess about true human longevity?

          Longevity is very likely tied to wealth. Rich people do lots of exercise, have low stress and eat well. I just put out a preprint analysing the last 72 years of UN data on mortality. The places consistently reaching 100 at the highest rates according to the UN are Thailand, Malawi, Western Sahara (which doesn’t have a government) and Puerto Rico, where birth certificates were cancelled completely as a legal document in 2010 because they were so full of pension fraud. This data is just rotten from the inside out.

          Do you think the Ig Nobel will get your science taken more seriously?

          I hope so. But even if not, at least the general public will laugh and think about it, even if the scientific community is still a bit prickly and defensive. If they don’t acknowledge their errors in my lifetime, I guess I’ll just get someone to pretend I’m still alive until that changes.



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