Numerous incidents of suspected Russian-linked sabotage of undersea cables in the Baltic Sea has seen tensions rise among nearby countries, and an increased Nato presence.
In the latest incident, on January 26, the Swedish coast guard boarded a ship in the Baltic Sea on suspicion of anchor dragging and suspected sabotage of vital undersea cables providing power and communication across the region. Latvia also sent a warship to the incident to investigate damage to fibre-optic cables. The Bulgarian vessel is now under investigation. The owner of the ship has denied any involvement with sabotage.
The nations along the Baltic Sea coast have become increasingly worried about suspected sabotage of their undersea infrastructure in recent months by vessels deliberately dragging their using anchors along the seabed and have started to station military vessels at sea every day.
Critical undersea infrastructure can be easily damaged by anchor dragging. Russia has denied involvement in these incidents.
But there have also been credible reports that Russia has actively been mapping undersea infrastructure.
In response to rising concerns about infrastructure security, Nato increased its regional naval presence by launching the Baltic Sentry mission on January 14, which includes maritime patrol vessels.
What’s the context?
In recent months there have been several reports of damage being caused to undersea cables by vessels as they pass through the Baltic Sea. Attacks on undersea cables are comparable to traditional espionage and information operations . This is activity conducted at the level below that of warfare, designed to send certain signals to adversarial nations. The purpose could be to send a message that the capability exists to essentially cut off and isolate nations from the outside world.
These cables are extremely valuable. They are used to transport gas, electricity and internet traffic between nations. And recent incidents have led to a reduction in the capacity of electricity that can be transported, although this has not yet caused widespread power outages. Another concern is that damage to internet cables can hold up the passage of information generated by the financial markets. This is particularly vulnerable due to its time-sensitive nature.
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How can cables be protected?
Protecting the cables is a challenging task. There is little that can physically be done to prevent other vessels crossing seas and oceans due to the concept of freedom of navigation of the high seas. And Russia has a right of passage for its ships, for example, from St Petersburg to the North Sea.
Investigations into apparent threats can be conducted without actually seizing the vessel or impeding its progress in any way. This can done through the use of GPS tracking data and combining that with other evidence such as eye witness testimony.
While these cables can get damaged through natural means, the targeting of them could be a way for a nation to operate against its adversaries in a more covert manner and below the threshold of armed conflict.
Much of the disruption to the traffic on these undersea cables is probably the result of accidental activity. But there have been concerns about greater activity by Russian military vessels in their attempts to map the Baltic sea floor. The most likely reason for the increased Russian sea mapping activity is to gain a greater understanding of the location of these cables. But it could be sending a message that this critical infrastructure is difficult to defend and vulnerable to attack and sabotage.
Many merchant vessels are registered in overseas territories, and ownership can be hard to track. This gives a degree of plausible deniability over who may have ordered or overseen the operations that might have damaged cables.
It makes it more challenging for action to be taken, but has given rise to accusations that these ships are acting as Russia’s “shadow fleet”.
But this increased naval presence in the Baltic could act as a deterrent and provide greater security to the cables. Sweden has now boarded a vessel. But another obstacle here is that the nation where the vessel is registered is under absolutely no obligation to cooperate with any investigation.
Other factors are also involved. The Baltic states and Finland have memories of the political control imposed upon them by the Soviet government prior to, and, in some cases, after the second world war, and this will be adding to the tension.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has increased regional fears about what could happen next. Moscow may be hoping to deter the Baltic nations from continuing to provide the support they are giving to Ukraine by increasing pressure on them along the coast.
But aggressive activity in the Baltic Sea may well have the opposite effect by ramping up concern about Russia’s power. It might also mean Baltic and Nordic countries are more willing to increase their defence spending and make preparations for possible military action.
