Four out of five members of Brazil’s supreme court have voted to convict the former president, Jair Bolsonaro, for plotting a military coup after losing the 2022 election to his left-wing rival, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro has been sentenced to more than 27 years in prison, though his lawyers say they will appeal the decision.
Seven of Bolsonaro’s allies have also been convicted on charges related to the coup attempt. Five of these people – Walter Braga Netto, Mauro Cid, Paulo Sérgio Nogueira de Oliveira, Augusto Heleno Ribeiro and Almir Garnier Santos – come from a military or navy background. Bolsonaro’s former justice minister, Anderson Torres, and the former director of Brazil’s intelligence agency, Alexandre Ramagem, have been convicted too.
This is the first time in Brazil’s long history of political instability that a coup attempt has led to a conviction. It is also symbolically important that the only woman on the panel, Judge Carmen Lúcia, cast the deciding vote. Bolsonaro has an established track record of making denigrating comments about women.
The date of the verdict is equally important. It was delivered on September 11, which coincides with the 52nd anniversary of the 1973 Chilean military coup. This shows how far democracy in the region has come since an era when much of South America was under military rule.
Alexandre de Moraes, the supreme court judge who led the Bolsonaro trial, alluded to this in August. He said that Brazil’s 1988 constitution established the judiciary’s independence by restricting “interference by the armed forces, whether official or semi-official, in Brazilian politics”.
These constitutional guarantees mean that politicians like Bolsonaro cannot undermine democratic institutions with impunity.
Antonio Lacerda / EPA
The coup attempt took place on January 8 2023, less than a week after Lula was inaugurated as Bolsonaro’s successor. Echoing the attack on the US Capitol building in Washington two years earlier, hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters stormed the national congress, presidential palace and supreme court in the capital, Brasília.
They left a trail of destruction. Although the protests appeared initially to be a spontaneous act, investigations soon unearthed evidence that the event had been planned by Bolsonaro and his allies.
A history of dictatorship and threats against democracy have cast a long shadow over Brazilian politics. A right-wing military dictatorship ruled the country between 1964 and 1985. It began when the armed forces overthrew the democratically elected president, João Goulart, amid an economic crisis and fears about a turn to the left. The US government of the time supported the coup.
Brazil established a National Truth Commission in 2012, which spent two years investigating the thousands of cases of torture, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances and other violations that occurred during this period. However, there have been no convictions.
Under pressure from mass demonstrations and an economic crisis, the military gradually relaxed repression in the 1980s and allowed political parties to form. Brazil has been under civilian control since then. But the armed forces began to play a significant political role again during Bolsonaro’s presidency.
General Hamilton Mourão, his vice-president, served in the military during the dictatorship. And various other military figures were appointed to powerful positions in government. Bolsonaro also regularly celebrated the dictatorship and downplayed its human rights violations.
There were various examples of democratic backsliding under Bolsonaro. He, for example, questioned the legitimacy of democratic election results in 2022 – comments that saw him barred from running in elections for seven years.
Within this context, the decision to convict Bolsonaro of an attempted coup is a strong sign that Brazil’s democratic institutions have been able to withstand threats to democracy and the rule of law. It is a signal that attempts to undermine the country’s democratic institutions will not go unpunished.
Beyond Brazil’s borders
Bolsonaro’s conviction resonates beyond Brazil. During his presidency, Bolsonaro positioned Brazil as a close ideological ally to Donald Trump, who was then in his first presidential term.
Trump referred to Bolsonaro’s trial as a “witch hunt” as the court case progressed. He hit Brazil with 50% tariffs, framing them as retaliation for Bolsonaro’s prosecution. Reacting to the guilty verdict, Trump said it was “very surprising” and compared it to his own judicial struggles.
Lula has spoken out against US interference in Brazilian politics, calling the idea that “Trump can dictate rules for a sovereign country like Brazil” unacceptable.
The Brazilian foreign affairs ministry has also criticised the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, for interfering in the country’s sovereignty and democracy. In a social media post, Rubio called the conviction “unjust” and said the US “will respond accordingly to this witch hunt”.
Sebastiao Moreira / EPA
Looking ahead, Brazil’s next presidential elections are in 2026. Unless Bolsonaro manages to appeal his conviction and election ban, he will not be running again for the foreseeable future. Although Lula has not formally announced his candicacy he would be the front-runner.
But if there is a run-off, which would most likely be with right-wing politician and former army captain Tarcísio de Freitas, the race will probably be very close. There is a risk that the conviction will turn Bolsonaro into a martyr, which would strengthen politicians like de Freitas, who identify themselves with Bolsonaro’s politics.
Ahead of his conviction, around 40,000 Bolsonaro supporters protested in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. These demonstrations indicate continuing support. However, regardless of what happens next, the supreme court’s decision makes it much less likely that challenges to democracy will succeed in Brazil.
