EXCLUSIVE: Professor John Curtice said the by-election campaign could be “fascinating” with much at stake for John Swinney and Anas Sarwar.
A crunch by-election which could set the tone for next year’s Holyrood poll will take place on June 5.
Voters in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse will have the chance to elect a new MSP following the death of Christina McKelvie last month.
And the country’s top pollster has said the race between the SNP and Scottish Labour could be a “dead heat”.
A funeral for McKelvie, a well-known MSP who had represented the area since 2011, took place last Friday.
The race to succeed her officially got underway yesterday after the Scottish Parliament confirmed polling day would be Thursday, June 5.
The SNP has selected Katy Loudon, a South Lanarkshire councillor, as its candidate – while Scottish Labour was in the process of confirming its candidate last night.
The urban seat in the Glasgow commuter belt is viewed as a straight race between John Swinney’s party and that of Anas Sarwar.
Whoever wins will be handed a huge boost going into the Holyrood election campaign next year.
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The Hamilton constituency partly overlaps with the Rutherglen seat which Labour won in a sensational Westminster by-election victory in October 2023.
But the party’s popularity has been dented since it returned to power in London as a result of a series of tough spending choices, including the decision to end the universal winter fuel payment.
McKelvie won the seat in 2021 with a majority of 4,500 at a time the SNP were riding much higher in the polls than they are now.
Professor John Curtice, the UK’s leading authority on political polling, told the Record the by-election could be a “fascinating” race.
“If you look at what happened in the seat last time, and look at what the current opinion polls are saying, you come close to a dead heat,” he said.
“The SNP had just under a 13 point lead over Labour last time. The polls suggest, on the constituency vote, at best are holding their 2021 figure.
“All the Scottish Labour revival of the last four years has gone out of the window.
“But in this constituency, Monica Lennon got 33 per cent last time. So maybe Labour can hang on to what they’ve got. At the moment, that seems the best they could hope for.
“The SNP however are running at about 34, 35 per cent in the opinion polls. They were at nearly 48 per cent in 2021. So, their vote could go down 13 points, which gets you to a dead heat.
“It’s a fascinating battle as the SNP hopes of there still being a pro-independence majority at Holyrood after the next election rest really, really heavily on the Nationalists’ ability to mop up most of the constituency contests.
“And that would include somewhere like Hamilton.”
Jackie Baillie, Scottish Labour deputy leader, said: “This by-election is a chance for the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse to vote for a new direction with Scottish Labour.
“People in this community and right across Scotland are being let down by this tired and out-of-touch SNP government.
“From long NHS waiting lists to struggling local businesses to overstretched local services, the signs of this SNP government’s failure are plain to see – but this isn’t as good as it gets.”
Katy Loudon, the SNP candidate, said: “This campaign is about giving the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse the chance to vote for an SNP MSP who will build on Christina’s incredible legacy and stand up for local people at every opportunity.
“Households across the constituency are benefitting from SNP decisions – including free prescriptions and social care, free university tuition or help for older people with heating bills.”
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