John Curtice said the battle for the South Lanarkshire seat always looked as if it would be a close affair and that’s how it turned out.
Anas Sarwar should not expect to oust John Swinney as first minister just yet despite Labour’s success at the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, Professor John Curtice has said.
The election guru said the battle for the South Lanarkshire seat always looked as if it would be a close affair and that’s what happened.
The Strathclyde University academic told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “If you take in the opinion polls, what’s happened in Hamilton, and the ups and downs in Labour and SNP support since 2021, we see Labour at 31 per cent and the SNP at 31 per cent.
“So the contest always looked to be close and that’s what’s been proven in the end. Labour has done slightly better and the SNP slightly worse, but there is nothing in the result to suggest Labour has turned around the polls.
“But equally what’s true is there are no signs in this result that the SNP are making much progress in reversing the losses from last year.
“The recent message from opinion polls are the SNP is running at just over 30 per cent, Labour is around 20 per cent, so it seems a reasonable expectation that such a result would not mean Anas Sarwar is Scotland’s next first minister.”
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Curtice also said that the by-election was positive for Reform, even though it came third after some pundits predicted it could finish higher.
Nigel Farage’s party took 26.2 per cent of the vote – well above the 19 per cent it is sitting at in the national polls for Scotland.
Writing in The Times, he said: “Once again it is Reform’s political prospects that now look brighter.
“As in the English local elections, so in Hamilton the party outperformed its current standing in the polls, winning as much as 26 per cent of the vote.
“Hitherto politicians in Scotland have comforted themselves with the thought that Nigel Farage could never make the political weather in a country that voted against Brexit and which seems less concerned about immigration.
“However, as in the rest of the UK, that is not a thought that is credible any more.”
It is estimated around one in four Conservative voters in Scotland from last year’s general election have switched to Reform, along with one in six Labour voters.
Curtice said: “Reform UK is damaging both of the principal unionist parties in Scotland.
“In this instance, it was not enough to save the SNP’s bacon. But across Scotland there is still the likely prospect that the SNP will be the largest party in the next Holyrood election, but much diminished and much less powerful than the one currently occupying the debating chamber.”
