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        SNP Government accused of failing to rule out 12% rise in water charges

        SNP Government accused of failing to rule out 12% rise in water charges

        SNP and Greens in Edinburgh council coalition talks as historic deal looms

        SNP and Greens in Edinburgh council coalition talks as historic deal looms

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        Blundering Boris Johnson told by Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe how ‘she lived in the shadow of his words’

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        Keir Starmer offers to resign as Labour leader if he is fined over beergate claims

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        SNP MP Anum Qaisar says she was warned which men to avoid in Westminster

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        SNP miss out on Russian sanctions list as 287 MPs banned from entering country

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        Scottish Labour opposition to indyref2 not “viable” says country’s top trade unionist

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        Anas Sarwar brands SNP Glasgow council leader ‘a Nicola Sturgeon puppet’ as Labour bids to win back city

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          Sector growth slows as rising inflation weighs on demand

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          Scottish job growth eases to four-month low in April

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          Scottish insolvencies hold steady as compounding crises raise pressure

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          Recovery in Scottish business optimism dampened by rising costs

          Kate Forbes welcomes ‘encouraging’ GDP growth of 0.4%

          Kate Forbes welcomes ‘encouraging’ GDP growth of 0.4%

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          Gio van Bronckhorst wants Rangers contract answers as he hits back at ‘end of cycle’ claims

          Gio van Bronckhorst wants Rangers contract answers as he hits back at ‘end of cycle’ claims

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          What the Rangers pundits said as heartbroken Ally McCoist confesses his shootout hunch missed the mark

          Ange Postecoglou wants another Celtic midfielder as he reveals the prophetic logic behind 3 January transfers

          Ange Postecoglou wants another Celtic midfielder as he reveals the prophetic logic behind 3 January transfers

          Mark McGhee readies Dundee for fight to the finish as he insists St Johnstone are ‘feeling the pressure’

          Mark McGhee readies Dundee for fight to the finish as he insists St Johnstone are ‘feeling the pressure’

          Scott Brown announces retirement as Celtic hero reveals his management vision and Ange Postecoglou inspiration

          Scott Brown announces retirement as Celtic hero reveals his management vision and Ange Postecoglou inspiration

          Zander Clark set for Dundee United transfer talks as Tam Courts targets pre-contract deal

          Zander Clark set for Dundee United transfer talks as Tam Courts targets pre-contract deal

          Rangers pundits puzzled by Joe Aribo switch as Fashion Sakala central role queried after late heartache

          Rangers pundits puzzled by Joe Aribo switch as Fashion Sakala central role queried after late heartache

          Lewis Ferguson in brutally honest Aberdeen confession but midfielder delivers blunt verdict on Max Stryjek

          Lewis Ferguson in brutally honest Aberdeen confession but midfielder delivers blunt verdict on Max Stryjek

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          Hearts bounce doesn’t worry Hibs as Ron Gordon issues defiant ‘we’ll be back’ Europa League vow

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          Kyogo ready for Celtic starring role against Rangers as cautious approach is gone now

          Rangers cauldron of noise will make Braga BETTER as Carlos Carvalhal sets out gung ho game plan

          Rangers cauldron of noise will make Braga BETTER as Carlos Carvalhal sets out gung ho game plan

          Ange Postecoglou makes Celtic new contract admission as he vows potential treble is only the start

          Ange Postecoglou makes Celtic new contract admission as he vows potential treble is only the start

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            Apple’s ‘hidden setting’ that instantly improves audio quality on calls and video

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            Elon Musk puts Twitter takeover on hold – but insists he’s ‘still committed’ to bid

            Facebook to axe a number of location-tracking features from app later this month

            Facebook to axe a number of location-tracking features from app later this month

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            Urgent WhatsApp warning as users told to delete scam text immediately

            Simple household job could make you up to £600 in a matter of minutes

            Simple household job could make you up to £600 in a matter of minutes

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            ‘Beautiful’ woman who complained of back pain tragically died after being diagnosed with cancer

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            Cleaning your ears without cotton buds – the three safest methods

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            Devastated family’s tribute to ‘kind’ daughter who tragically died from cancer

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            Breakthrough cancer study finds big ‘clues’ about how disease is caused

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            N-Dubz Glasgow 2022 times and dates for pre-sale and general tickets

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            Vets in warning over ‘toxic’ rapeseed plants which can cause skin burns in dogs

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            Many primary heads ‘would have preferred to delay Wales’ new curriculum’

            Many primary heads ‘would have preferred to delay Wales’ new curriculum’

            Panic attacks, anxiety and attendance levels at an all time low – a teacher describes the mood as teens prepare to take the first summer exams for three years

            Panic attacks, anxiety and attendance levels at an all time low – a teacher describes the mood as teens prepare to take the first summer exams for three years

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          As China welcomes the world to Winter Olympics, its economy is ever more isolated from the west

          February 4, 2022
          in World
          Reading Time:7min read
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          As the Beijing Winter Olympics get underway, all eyes are on China. There has been lots of coverage about China’s chilly relationship in the west and its persecution of the Uighur and other minorities, but there is also much to be said about the Chinese economy.

          China’s great rise over the past several decades has been the great economic success of our times, lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and giving the global economy wheels in the years after the financial crisis of 2007-09.

          Over the past decade, however, the miracle became a bit more ordinary as growth gradually slowed. China found it difficult to keep increasing exports at the same pace year after year, particularly in the face of weaker international demand for its products – not least because of the trade war with the US. Other issues have included an ageing population and the fact that growth had become increasingly dependent on debt, which wasn’t sustainable.

          China’s economic growth 1997-2021


          Trading Economics/National Bureau of Statistics of China, CC BY

          China did seem to have weathered the pandemic better than many major economies, having contained the virus so aggressively. Yet the picture has since deteriorated as renewed domestic COVID outbreaks, including the new omicron variant, have caused fresh economic disruption.

          Omicron’s effect on other major economies is not good news for Chinese exports either. Neither is the resurgence of inflation in many countries, which has prompted the US Federal Reserve and other central banks to threaten higher interest rates and an end to creating money via quantitative easing. This is likely to further dampen demand for Chinese goods.

          China’s debt has also become an even bigger issue. Leading property developer Evergrande’s financial difficulties in 2021 made headlines, but excessive debt is rife throughout the property sector and beyond. If the bubble bursts, it could lead to a prolonged downturn that significantly damages the wider economy.

          The government has been pressuring major companies to reduce their debts, while also restricting borrowing in the property sector and cracking down on informal lending across the country. It also sent a warning to excess borrowers through its willingness to let Evergrande default.

          Weaker exports and reducing debt mean that China is heading for a slowdown: the World Bank projects that its economic growth will be just over 5% in 2022, compared to 8% in 2021.

          China’s challenges

          More broadly, China’s traditional growth model based on exports, infrastructure and real estate investment looks like it has run its course. The nation is facing a difficult rebalancing act as it aims to transition to relying much more on Chinese households consuming goods and services, while also having to move to a much less carbon-intensive economy.

          Unfortunately for the ruling Communist Party, the best way to achieve this rebalancing is arguably to implement reforms that would limit the govermnent’s influence in Chinese life. For example, the World Bank thinks China needs to make it easier for companies to fail and to allow more private competition in sectors like education and healthcare as a way of driving up productivity. It also recommends enabling workers to move around the country by abolishing the hukou registration system in cities, since this system stipulates where someone is permanently resident.

          Some World Bank recommendations do involve more government intervention, such as making the tax system more progressive to encourage consumers to spend more, and raising government spending on health and education so that people don’t need to save so much. Generally speaking, however, more liberalisation is the order of the day – and looks like the right way forward from my point of view.

          Yet China has become more interventionist in the Xi era, cracking down on everything from tech billionaires to the number of hours that children can play video games each day. Meanwhile, China’s zero-COVID strategy has involved tightly sealed borders, swift citywide lockdowns and mass testing.

          China adopted this strategy partly out of fear that its poor healthcare system could be completely overwhelmed by COVID, and more recently as a way of ensuring that the Winter Olympics proceed smoothly. Yet such is the climate in China that some commentators fear that it will not open up again, that the health crisis is turning into a political crisis of more committed isolation.

          China therefore finds itself at a crossroads. On the one hand, it wants a greater role in the global economy, as can be seen through its Belt and Road Initiative to drive infrastructure development around the world in exchange for closer ties with Beijing.

          But there is a contradiction between continuing to engage with global trade and the Chinese government’s instinct towards technological self-sufficiency and homegrown innovation. Trade liberalisation also requires, for example, opening up the banking sector to foreign lenders to make it more efficient. Yet that is a long way from Beijing’s interventionist approach. Indeed, the fact that the banks, which are partly owned by the state, were given mandates to lend to state-owned companies with poor financial status was the cause of many the debt problems in the first place.

          Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping posing in front of flags

          Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have been holding a summit as the Games begin.
          EPA

          Unfortunately, the indications are that China is more likely to move towards greater isolationism from the west. This might mean restricting people visiting the country and concentrating more on domestic consumption than global trade. We might see it further tacking away from globalisation via trade wars, as well as imposing greater capital controls to make it harder for money to get in and out of the country. Obviously, China is partly acting out of provocation from the west, but its overall policy shift has been to a large extent homegrown.

          As with the winter Olympics, where China is trying to keep the athletes separate from its people, the nation is also behaving in a similar way with regard to the rest of the world. What should be a celebration of international cooperation is happening at a time when the exact opposite is taking place.



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